$23 Billion Will Be Bet on the Super Bowl: Here's Why.

It’s quite easy to turn pigeons into degenerate gamblers.

Just ask Thomas Zentall.

Zentall conducted a study in 2013 where pigeons had a choice between two games.

In game one, the pigeons received 15 units of their favorite food every other time they pecked a light.

In game two, they got food about every fifth peck, so roughly 20 percent of the time.

The catch? In game two, the win was larger. When the pigeons won, they received 20 units of their same favorite food instead of 15.

The timing of the rewards in this game was also completely unpredictable.

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The math shows that game one is the easy choice.

Let’s say a pigeon plays 100 times. The game would unfold like this:

• Game one: 750 units of food

• Game two: about 400 units of food

A steady, but modest reward versus a sporadic yet more substantial win.

Which game did the pigeons favor?

96.9 percent of them chose to play game two.

Against conventional wisdom, the pigeons flocked toward the riskier game – one of unpredictability and occasional “jackpot-like” winnings.

How could this be? Why?

The answer lies in a “scarcity” loop that’s etched into our DNA and evident in various aspects of our lives – from gambling to overeating to binge-watching to binge-drinking and much more.

You see, we now have an abundance of the things we’ve evolved to crave - like food, possesions, mood adjusters (drugs and entertainment), influence (social media) and more – yet we’re still programmed to think and act as if we don’t have enough.

Let’s dive in.

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The scarcity loop has three parts: opportunity, unpredictable rewards, and quick repeatability.

It’s an ancient game that developed to keep us alive – a gamble we used to make daily, but no longer do: the journey to find food.

Finding food was our original and most important opportunity to survive and better our life. When our ancestors didn’t find food in two, three or four places – that didn’t stop them.

If they didn’t keep searching and searching – they’d starve and die an excruciating death.

Like gambling, their searches kept them in suspense of an unpredictable reward. They knew they’d likely find food eventually – but when? And where? And what? And how much food would there be?

This behavior would be repeated for most of each day every day.

And this ancient game didn’t just apply to finding food – it applied to acquiring anything that gave us the opportunity to improve our lives – from gaining possessions to social status to whatever made us feel good and live another day.

Opportunity – Unpredictable Rewards – Quick Repeatability

For us to survive, our brains created systems that repeatedly pushed us into this loop.

At the heart of it all was a brain chemical that’s widely misunderstood – dopamine.

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Dopamine isn’t a pleasure chemical.

It doesn’t make us do or believe anything.

In reality, dopamine is primarily released when we’re pursuing or anticipating receiving that pleasurable thing, not when we’re actually receiving the pleasurable thing.

In simpler terms, dopamine isn’t when your $50 bet cashes, but when the game is still up in the air – when you aren’t sure if you’ll get the reward.

The magic lies in the anticipation – that’s when the dopamine fires and turns the wait for the reward into a reward in and of itself.

Even if the odds aren’t in your favor.

Sure things are boring.

Unpredictability makes us obsessive and turns a Wednesday night Mountain West college basketball game into a captivating drama.

When does Boise State play next?

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Evolution drilled our attraction to the scarcity loop into our brains – it’s why the loop still captivates our minds to this day.

And why, because of that very reason, the scarcity loop is increasingly fundamental in shaping the design of several common everyday products – from Instagram to Amazon to YouTube.

All are strategically created to increase our attention spans, encourage more spending or entice us to repeat habits we’re trying to limit.

In other words, all are strategically designed to harness the power of the scarcity loop.

It’s a powerful driver of our behavior – a deeply engaging, ancient game that takes our hand and leads us to crave more.

And why many experts believe it’s central to many damaging human behaviors and conditions from overspending to obesity to addiction and burnout.

One such example? Slot machines.

Slot machines masterfully exploit the scarcity loop.

I’ll save the full explanation for another time, but for right now, all you need to know is this – slot machines make more than $30 billion each year in the United States alone or about $100 per American each year.

That’s more than we spend on movies, books and music combined.

And get this, an estimated 68 million Americans will wager roughly $23 billion on this year’s Super Bowl.

Why?

Because it’s fun? Well, sure.

But why is it so engaging in the first place? I mean, the house always wins.

The scarcity loop. That’s why.

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Yep, sports gambling apps exploit the scarcity loop too.

They provide an opportunity to win something of value – money.

They provide unpredictable rewards – even the most knowledgeable sports fans can’t predict what the outcome of each game, half, quarter or play will be.

And finally, they offer quick repeatability – lose a bet? No need to worry, you can bet on the very next play – right from your phone.

Related: Chiefs didn’t cover the first half?! No way they don’t bounce back. I’m throwing money on Chiefs second-half money line!

No matter the behavior, the more we have the opportunity and desire to quickly repeat it, the greater its effect on us.

So be careful not to overdo it – at this very moment, behavior engineers are using a century’s worth of psychological data to optimize the scarcity loop and make sports betting even more compelling.

All while maintaining the slight house edge.

But let’s be honest – who ya got, 49ers or Chiefs?

I’ll be betting (responsibly) on the game too.

We’re wired this way.