Beyond Our Imagination: The Missing Pieces in Our Vision of the Future

To see is to experience the world as it is.

To remember is to experience the world as it was.

But to imagine – ah, yes, to imagine – is to experience the world as it isn’t and hasn’t been, but as it might be.

Arguably, the greatest achievement of the human brain is its ability to think about the future.

And thinking about the future can bring great joy – hitting the game-winning shot, marrying the love of your life, earning that big promotion – but it can also have some troubling consequences.

Why?

We often misimagine the future.

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Growing up, I wanted to be a baseball broadcaster.

I’d be the voice of the St. Louis Cardinals – my favorite team. It’d be the best job in the world. I mean, talking sports for a living?

What could possibly be better?

But like everyone else, when we imagine the future, we fail to realize what our imagination misses – and those pieces are more important than we realize.

I had pictured the headset, the broadcast booth, the catchphrases and the call of a walk-off win, but my imagination left out a few details – the daily grind to rise through the ranks, the long hours, the little pay, the loneliness of the constant travel, the difficulty of a social life, the summer nights and weekends occupied by work.

And oh yea…you have to be VERY talented to land any of the limited jobs available – whether that be in Springdale, Arkansas, Pearl, Mississippi or anywhere and everywhere in between.

Let’s be clear: I’m not saying broadcasting isn’t a career worth pursuing.

I’m saying that, in the instance of career paths, one must consider not just the job title, but the small details that make up the day-to-day work.

Understand and love the process. Not just the end result.

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It all circles back to this main point: when we imagine the future, there are so many things missing and – those missing things matter.

This point was illustrated by a study of University of Virginia college students.

Students were asked to predict how they would feel a few days after their school's football team won or lost an upcoming game against the University of North Carolina.

Before making these predictions, one group of students (the describers) were asked to describe the events of a typical day and one group of students (the non-describers) were not.

A few days later, the students were asked to report how happy they actually were.

The result? The non-describers group drastically overestimated the impact the loss would have on them.

Why? Because when non-describers imagined the future, they tended to leave out details about the things that would happen after the game was over. Such as, right after the loss (sad moment), they’d get drunk with all their friends (happy moment). Or, right after their team won (happy moment), they’d have to go to the library and study for a calculus final (sad moment).

The non-describers focused on just one aspect of the future – the outcome of the football game – and failed to account for the other aspects of the future that would influence their happiness (such as getting drunk and calculus finals).

Meanwhile, the describers were more accurate in their predictions because they were forced to consider the details the non-describers left out.

***

Do you ever make plans and then regret it when the day arrives and want to cancel?

I do this all the time. Why?

When we think of events in the distant future, we tend to think abstractly – but when we think of events in the near future, we tend to think concretely – in much more detailed terms.

In other words, the near future is finely detailed, whereas the far future is blurry and smooth.

The date you agreed to last week was “a chance at finding love”.

The date today is “oh shit, am I really going to miss wine night and leave the house on this cold, rainy day to meet up with some dude I've never met before that might be a total loser?".

Our imagination of the future misses the details. Sometimes, those details matter.

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For instance, you can probably categorize most Americans into two categories: those who live in California and are happy they do and those who don’t live in California, but think they’d be happier if they did.

Yet, research shows that Californians, on average, are no happier than anyone else. So why do people (including Californians) believe they are?

California has beautiful scenery and some of the best weather in the country. So, when non-residents think of the state, they tend to think of sunny beaches and tall redwood trees.

And sure, while Los Angeles certainly has better weather than Cleveland, climate is just one of many things that impact a person’s happiness – yet those other details tend to be missing from non-residents imaginations.

If they were to add in the other details – outside of the pretty beaches and palm trees – such as traffic, cost of living, proximity to family, earthquakes and so on, they may realize that Los Angeles beats Cleveland in some ways, but not all.

When we fail to consider all the details of a situation, we fail to realize how these details could drastically impact the decisions we decide to make.

***

We’ve all been asked the dreaded interview question, “Where do you see yourself in five years?”.

It’s hard to answer, but even sillier to ask.

Now we know why – though our answers are sincere and well-intentioned, they are most likely completely inaccurate.

The correct answer is this: “I don’t know. We often misimagine the future”.

The better answer?

“Taking your job and asking better questions”.