Everyone Pees in the Hot Tub...Right?

Why we tend to overestimate how much others agree with us...

Fine, I’ll admit it.

I’ve peed in a hot tub before. More than once.

Now let’s be clear – am I doing this every time I hop in? No. If I can hold it, do I? Of course. But if I really have to go, am I getting out for a bathroom break? Probably not.

Sorry, that’s just the way it is.

Do I assume other people do the same? Absolutely. Does it gross me out? No, not really.

In fact, I’d argue that at least 80% of people would agree with me.

Peeing in the hot tub? No big deal.

***

Funny enough, I found myself in this very same debate with a friend a few weeks ago.

She also sensed that the majority of people would be on her side. There really isn’t much of an argument to be made.

Her side? The complete opposite of mine.

Peeing in a hot tub? Gross. Disgusting. Borderline unethical.

You’d have thought I told her I only shower once a week.

How could it be that despite holding oppositive views, we both thought the overwhelming majority would be on our side?

Let’s take a closer look.

***

Many parents will report that the world has gotten more dangerous over the years.

Ask them when and they’ll give you a date very close to the birth of their first child.

Is this an accurate assessment? No. If anything, one could argue the world has never been safer.

But welcoming a child into the world changes the lens through which you see it.

This phenomenon, quite fittingly, is known as the lens problem.

A natural consequence of this problem is assuming that others see the world through a similar lens. In other words, we can’t easily identify the exact influence of our own perspective.

Ask others to report on what other people believe, think, feel, or know and survey after survey shows this – we all tend to exaggerate the extent to which others think, believe, and feel as we do.

Vanilla ice cream lovers (guilty) think they are larger in numbers compared to chocolate ice cream lovers. Liberals tend to believe that the average person is more liberal than conservatives do.

Voters on opposing sides of an issue tend to believe that those who didn’t vote would have voted for their side.

And when it comes to morality, even those who are clearly in the minority tend to perceive themselves as the moral majority.

***

Recently, I threw out a question into the Twitter (err…X) sphere to settle our earlier morality debate.

Would you ever pee in a hot tub?

Even with the awareness of our tendency to overestimate the degree to which others agree with us, I guessed at least 80% would be on my side.

My friend guessed closer to 90%.

The results of the poll? See below.

This wasn’t the one-sided affair we both thought it would be.

Not even close.

But this shouldn’t be as much of a surprise to us anymore – especially to those of you on Team Never Pee in a Hot Tub.

The moral minority often sees itself as the moral majority.

And no matter what side you’re on, remember this – we all tend to overestimate the degree to which others share our thoughts, beliefs, and emotions.

Surprisingly, that even includes your thoughts on peeing in a hot tub.

 

See you next week (and likely never again in the same hot tub as some of you),

Kevin

*Yes, I do realize that 27 votes is a small and statistically insignificant sample size. This also isn’t necessarily a question about morals (though some may disagree). But…the overall point still stands.

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